The High Def War is Over!

(Probably)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7250068.stm

Toshiba is likely to cease production of HD-DVD players, Wal-Mart has already stopped stocking both the players and the movies and a key supplier for Toshiba’s HD-DVD production line has alegedly already stopped production.

So it looks like Bluray wins by default.

It’s only taken two years, compared with the ten years that BetaMax hung on in there, so it’s sort of a blessing.

But I think Sony are going to be surprised by the number of Bluray players they’re not going to sell after this announcement.

I don’t think the world is ready to switch to high def movies yet. The TVs are still all over the place in terms of compatibility, the standards are still being re-written and the technology is still too expensive for most.

End of the Writers’ Strike

So the writers’ strike is finally over, just in time for the Oscars.

And the writers will now be paid for online content and DVD sales.

However the whole thing smacks of trouble in the future. As I understand it, the writers were originally paid very little for DVD sales because when DVDs first arrived, no-one knew if they were going to be a success, and the studios went with an attitude of “let’s see how it goes, then we can negotiate the pay”, only they then ‘forgot’ to go back to the issue.

As one of my friends put it, there nothing like having lots of money to make people want to avoid losing money.

But the whole issue got me thinking. I think DVDs are to the TV and film industry what MP3s were to the music industry. When MP3s came out, they were ignored or sidelined. Music companies wanted people to just keep buying CDs. They didn’t see the need to innovate, nor did they want to. They had, in effect, become stuck in a rut.
I think DVDs are a similar issue. TV studios only seem to look at distribution and ratings of on-air shows. They see DVDs as little more than an additional income source after the fact.

But to see what effect they can have, you only need to look at one of my favourite shows: Family Guy. It was cancelled because of poor ratings, mostly because it needed to be on later at night due to content and language. However, once cancelled the DVD sales went through the roof. So much so that the show was brought back from the grave.

And that’s the problem the industry faces. They continue to ignore DVD income and so great shows get cancelled after one year, whereas crap cheap TV like Big Brother carries on, even when it has become stale and repetitive.

There are a few promising signs. Stargate SG-1 and Babylon 5 are experimenting with direct to DVD distribution. Several shows are going online only, and DVDs are coming out quicker after TV shows go off the air for the season.

But overall, I don’t think the industry is changing fast enough or learning from its mistakes. And that makes me worry about the future.